Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[trampie09]

Re: Coronavirus update

Another meat packing place.....

Yes, I think it's odd, a meat place in Beijing also and a slaughter house in Germany is there something else going on here ?

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

apparently its is maily because oit so cold and the virus likes cold and because the word dictates that people work close together.

[life on mars]

Re: Coronavirus update

My mistake... I thought Rutman was sacked, but I believe he is having a go at the government because he says he was forced to resign.

Sedwill it seems has lost the support of the civil service after going native.

The message I was trying to get across was that there is not a lot of love lost between the civil service and the current Westminster government

That's what the Dom has been tasked with , there's a belief that it's an expensive over bloated organisation , for decades its been recognised as needing reform ,this is good read on the matter :

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/03/dominic-cummings-whitehall-civil-service-no-10

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

That's what the Dom has been tasked with , there's a belief that it's an expensive over bloated organisation , for decades its been recognised as needing reform ,this is good read on the matter :


https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-service-no-10

The main problem is that when the Civil service does need reform the organisation that reforms it is the Civil service

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

The main problem is that when the Civil service does need reform the organisation that reforms it is the Civil service

I have no idea about the civil service, and what reforms are necessary. Cummings will have a better idea than me, but it's more likely down to his own personal beliefs than any exact science. Every time there is a new Government, they always point at the Civil Service and say it "needs reform". Then, it gets reform. Then a new Government is formed, and it needs more reforming. In the meantime, people who don't have a clue about the civil service will say "civil service needs reform" just because they read it somewhere. And, every time it gets reformed, nobody even notices. We pay the same taxes. Things remain as efficient or as inefficient as ever (depending on whether the person at No 10 is the person you like or not).

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

A big rise in the R rate in Germany in the last few days - as reported in the Guardian's rolling coverage today;-

"In Germany, “R”, the reproduction number, rose to 2.88 on Sunday, according to the daily estimate published by the country’s public health agency, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Its Sunday daily bulletin (English language version) is here (pdf).

On Saturday, the RKI had R at 1.79, and on Friday it was at 1.06.

According to Bloomberg, the increase has been driven by local outbreaks “including in the region of North Rhine-Westphalia, where more than 1,300 people working at a slaughterhouse”.

R is one measure of of the rate at which coronavirus is spreading. Any number above 1 means that every one person infected will pass it on to more than one other person. An R number of 2.88 implies each German case is producing another 2.88 others.

Ministers say it is essential to keep R below 1.

However, R is not the only way of measuring the seriousness of an epidemic and, if the overall incidence of infection is low, an R number above 1 is much less worrying than if the disease is much more widespread. At the end of last week, the UK government started publishing growth rate estimates for coronavirus, nationally and by region, as well as R numbers. Unlike R, the growth rate figure indicates the speed at which a virus is spreading or diminishing, not just the overall direction."

The natural R rate of the virus is somewhere north of 3.0. The natural speed of my car is 0 mph. If I take my foot off the gas, I will gradually end up travelling at 0mph. As lockdowns are eased, and as people start behaving "normally", the R rate will tend to its natural rate of 3.0. I am surprised it got to 2.88 so quickly, particularly from a starting point of very few infections.

As the Government seem to be losing patience and aiming to remove restriction after restriction without first waiting to see the impact on the R rate, it will be difficult to know which effects that were put in place have the biggest impact on dampening the R rate.

I once worked on a computer system where 3 major changes went live in one weekend. Guess what, on Monday the system crashed. And, guess what, we spent 1 week arguing over which change caused the effects that we saw.

If the UK has a rise in the R rate, it will be difficult to pinpoint which relaxation measure had the worst impact.

As it stands, I think that we will see outbreaks throughout the country which will necessitate local lockdowns. I am also fairly sure that we will open our borders too quickly and, as a result, a second wave nationally is well within the realms of possibility. But, hey, we got to get people borrowing beyond their means so they can have 2 weeks in Majorca straight after they have spent 4 months on furlough.

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

Yes, I think it's odd, a meat place in Beijing also and a slaughter house in Germany is there something else going on here ?

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/anglesey-meat-processing-plant-coronavirus-18463940

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Some good news for Wales - taken from the Guardian's rolling coverage;-

"The Office for National Statistics has just published its latest weekly death figures for England and Wales. They cover the period up to the week ending Friday 12 June (week 24, as the ONS calls it).

The figures show that the number of coronavirus deaths continues to decline. And in Wales, in week 24, there were no excess deaths. In fact, the death rate that week was below the five-year average.

But in England every region apart from the north-east recorded excess deaths (ie, more deaths than you would expect) in week 24. That includes London, where the death rate was below average in week 23."

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

The USA has its first increase in daily deaths in 17 days - taken from the Guardian's rolling coverage;-

"Global report: seven US states report record Covid-19 hospitalisations
Seven US states have reported their highest coronavirus patient admissions in the pandemic so far, as cases surge in the US following the easing of restrictions.

Arizona, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas –which also confirmed a record daily case increase on Tuesday – each admitted record numbers of infected people to hospital, the Washington Post reported.

More than 800 deaths were reported across the country on Tuesday, it said, saying ti was the first increase in fatalities since 7 June.

California saw record infections, too, with more than 5,000 in a single day for the first time, as Arizona, Nevada and Missouri also reported record case increases.

In Florida, Homestead hospital warned that its intensive care unit was at capacity, NBC reported. Florida confirmed 3,200 new cases on Tuesday, which marked the sixth day of more than 25,000 cases:"

[Heisenberg]

Re: Coronavirus update

The USA has its first increase in daily deaths in 17 days - taken from the Guardian's rolling coverage;-

"Global report: seven US states report record Covid-19 hospitalisations
Seven US states have reported their highest coronavirus patient admissions in the pandemic so far, as cases surge in the US following the easing of restrictions.

Arizona, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas –which also confirmed a record daily case increase on Tuesday – each admitted record numbers of infected people to hospital, the Washington Post reported.

More than 800 deaths were reported across the country on Tuesday, it said, saying ti was the first increase in fatalities since 7 June.

California saw record infections, too, with more than 5,000 in a single day for the first time, as Arizona, Nevada and Missouri also reported record case increases.

In Florida, Homestead hospital warned that its intensive care unit was at capacity, NBC reported. Florida confirmed 3,200 new cases on Tuesday, which marked the sixth day of more than 25,000 cases:"

The states that you've listed there makes it seem like the whole "Covid hates the warm weather" theory isn't very accurate. There must be fecking searing temperatures in Texas and Arizona (for example).

[lisvaneblue]

Re: Coronavirus update

I think there are a few on here who are better equipped to answer your questions. For what it's worth, I'm quite optimistic now as far as the Uk goes because the slow decline in new cases and deaths is continuing despite more testing and the easing of the lockdown. However, the situation requires a fine balancing act because all of the signs are that countries like the USA and Brazil are suffering because they have, more or less, been trying to act as if things are getting better when they clearly aren't.

South Korea, who have been held up as a shining example of how to deal with the virus are now admitting they are in a second wave, but are hoping they can limit it to localised outbreaks and I think that is the best we can hope for, but we have to learn quickly from what we've got wrong up to now and hope that we have got the required infrastructure in place in the autumn.

South Korea are acting quickly to snuff out the local outbreaks. In Wales we have three significant local outbreaks and what have we done about increasing lockdown in the areas involved.....Nothing

The latest report from the Technical Advice Cell is that the R in Wales is averaging at 0.9,

[Gofer Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

Scene from Bournemouth beach yesterday! Madness.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

Scene from Bournemouth beach yesterday! Madness.

That's me, under the green umbrella!! The one at the back near the wall.

[Gofer Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

That's me, under the green umbrella!! The one at the back near the wall.

How did you manage to get a flight from Azerbaijan then?

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

How did you manage to get a flight from Azerbaijan then?

I went via Adelaide but stayed in the transit lounge.