Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

[Rock_Flock_of_Five]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

But, but, Putin and his cronies have said they have no plans to invade the Ukraine?

[Rock_Flock_of_Five]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

they are outgunned, little aerial support ( though I believe the UK have sent over rapier to combat that, or were talking about it ) a massive amount of Russian tanks on the border ( we also have sent a few Javelin's to help with that ), but they will be fighting street to street and we know thats tough and slow going, wouldn't think that will bother Putin though, the press will report victories and the public will lap it up

When the Russian soldiers are repatriated in body bags, public opinion could quickly turn against Putin.
The Russian GDP is less than that of a state like California. I don't think the Russian people will stomach a costly war.

[chrisp_1927]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

keep your eyes peeled for Facebook memes saying that NATO is the aggressor, Putin is right to invade etc

Eagerly shared by a bunch of scum who think they're a cut above the 'sheeple '. Will keep the antivaxers busy i suppose, another cause they can jump straight into

[delmbox]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

When the Russian soldiers are repatriated in body bags, public opinion could quickly turn against Putin.
The Russian GDP is less than that of a state like California. I don't think the Russian people will stomach a costly war.

I don't think Putin particularly cares what the Russian people think though

[LeningradCowboy]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

I don't think Putin particularly cares what the Russian people think though

Exactly.

[MacAdder]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

I hope there's no war at all. Nobody benefits but if there is to be a war, I hope the UK stays well out of it.

War, what is it good for, it's good for business..

[ToTaL ITK]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

they are outgunned, little aerial support ( though I believe the UK have sent over rapier to combat that, or were talking about it ) a massive amount of Russian tanks on the border ( we also have sent a few Javelin's to help with that ), but they will be fighting street to street and we know thats tough and slow going, wouldn't think that will bother Putin though, the press will report victories and the public will lap it up

that didn't stop ISIS or the taliban or the FNL for that matter..guerilla warfare it will be.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

It could easily turn into a repeat of their incursion into Afghanistan, which was a disaster in terms of the prestige of their military and in loss of men. And the body bags going home did have a great affect on the peoples attitude to things. It took them 10 years to admit defeat but it was clear in 10 months.

The superiority in aircraft and tanks is less relevant that you may think. The more their aircraft fly the more there is a chance they can be hit, and unlike the planes of yesteryear you can't replace a lost fighter with another one rolling out of the factory in 2 weeks. That is why good quality anti aircraft weaponry is more valuable to the defender than aircraft.
As for tanks, modern warfare theory is that you don't fight tanks with tanks, you fight tanks with infantry properly trained in the use of anti tank weaponry, which again large quantities of have been given to Ukraine, and British soldiers have been training soldiers in their use.
The other problem they will have is a swift advance will stretch their supply lines and leave pockets of Ukrainians in place behind the advance to disrupt and destroy the back up troop which, in all such scenarios are the less effective less well trained/disciplined.
Again it is the general accepted doctrine that to attack a prepared defended position you need 3 times the force you are attacking. So to attack a regiment dug in you need a brigade and so on. And the defenders know the ground and have time to lay traps. If you use that 3/1 logic then 130,000 men is not that many considering for every 1 who is a "teeth arm" soldier there are 5 non teeth arm soldiers to feed supply protect and care for. The sheer logistics of it is quite formidable and if it isn't run right (Or allowed to run right) it can be self defeating.
If Putin tries and fails, even if it takes him years to admit failure, he will never recover from it. If he can find a way out without losing face he will take it

They may well be able to push and armoured thrust straight in to Kiev in a matter of hours but I'd be very surprised if in the days weeks and months that followed they will sorely wish they weren't there.

[life on mars]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

that didn't stop ISIS or the taliban or the FNL for that matter..guerilla warfare it will be.

It's a big country , wonder if we would see Western backed covert support for the Ukraine guerilla warfare campaign ?

[Rock_Flock_of_Five]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

It could easily turn into a repeat of their incursion into Afghanistan, which was a disaster in terms of the prestige of their military and in loss of men. And the body bags going home did have a great affect on the peoples attitude to things. It took them 10 years to admit defeat but it was clear in 10 months.

The superiority in aircraft and tanks is less relevant that you may think. The more their aircraft fly the more there is a chance they can be hit, and unlike the planes of yesteryear you can't replace a lost fighter with another one rolling out of the factory in 2 weeks. That is why good quality anti aircraft weaponry is more valuable to the defender than aircraft.
As for tanks, modern warfare theory is that you don't fight tanks with tanks, you fight tanks with infantry properly trained in the use of anti tank weaponry, which again large quantities of have been given to Ukraine, and British soldiers have been training soldiers in their use.
The other problem they will have is a swift advance will stretch their supply lines and leave pockets of Ukrainians in place behind the advance to disrupt and destroy the back up troop which, in all such scenarios are the less effective less well trained/disciplined.
Again it is the general accepted doctrine that to attack a prepared defended position you need 3 times the force you are attacking. So to attack a regiment dug in you need a brigade and so on. And the defenders know the ground and have time to lay traps. If you use that 3/1 logic then 130,000 men is not that many considering for every 1 who is a "teeth arm" soldier there are 5 non teeth arm soldiers to feed supply protect and care for. The sheer logistics of it is quite formidable and if it isn't run right (Or allowed to run right) it can be self defeating.
If Putin tries and fails, even if it takes him years to admit failure, he will never recover from it. If he can find a way out without losing face he will take it

They may well be able to push and armoured thrust straight in to Kiev in a matter of hours but I'd be very surprised if in the days weeks and months that followed they will sorely wish they weren't there.

Chechnya would seem like a walk in the park compared with what they'd face in the Ukraine.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Chechnya would seem like a walk in the park compared with what they'd face in the Ukraine.

I agree 100%. And Putin is not stupid. I have it in the back of my mind that he thought the West would back down before now and that he is now in a cleft stick, attack and lose he loses face, withdraw and he loses face. That is why this time is so critical

[delmbox]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Needs this guy to get involved

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eqk4pWnVN5w

[ToTaL ITK]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

It's a big country , wonder if we would see Western backed covert support for the Ukraine guerilla warfare campaign ?

no idea...hope it won't get that far.

[splott parker]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Boris Churchill is at the helm, we can rest safe in our beds

[delmbox]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Boris Churchill is at the helm, we can rest safe in our beds

He's as high as Johnson on the bellendometer but Dominic Cummings makes a good point here

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1492259062116925441?s=20&t=ZJ-HUpS6sgGCLX7hmW-S0g