Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

[Rjk]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

I must have missed something here but I cannot recall reading any details about these so-called devastating sanctions that will be imposed on Russia if they invade Ukraine. What does Russia depend on the West for? OK we buy their oil/gas but surely that is a huge bargaining chip for them not for us - they can simply turn off the taps and accept the loss of revenue I suppose. Countries like Germany will be on their knees to them within days if that happened. As for the UK, Scotland could stop sending Scotch whiskey and Wales could stop sending Felinfoel Double Dragon ale and Caerphilly cheese I guess which would have a huge impact I'm sure.

I think it is more around freezing of assets of people connected to Putin, much of which makes its way to London

[Gofer Blue]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

I have heard that the Russian oligarchs and their agents, subsidiary companies and front men tend to hold most of their money in bank accounts, properties and companies in the west - and that going after them in that direction will have a srious impact on their wealth.

OK I can understand that, but how will that impact on the Russian economy as a whole? Or is the entire Russian economy indeed in the hands of a relatively few obscenely rich mates of Putin?

[lardy]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

I must have missed something here but I cannot recall reading any details about these so-called devastating sanctions that will be imposed on Russia if they invade Ukraine. What does Russia depend on the West for? OK we buy their oil/gas but surely that is a huge bargaining chip for them not for us - they can simply turn off the taps and accept the loss of revenue I suppose. Countries like Germany will be on their knees to them within days if that happened. As for the UK, Scotland could stop sending Scotch whiskey and Wales could stop sending Felinfoel Double Dragon ale and Caerphilly cheese I guess which would have a huge impact I'm sure.

Google for Londongrad, and all the links Russia has with the parliamentary elite, and how Russian money gets laundered in the UK.

[lardy]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

OK I can understand that, but how will that impact on the Russian economy as a whole? Or is the entire Russian economy indeed in the hands of a relatively few obscenely rich mates of Putin?

Yes to number 2, basically.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

OK I can understand that, but how will that impact on the Russian economy as a whole? Or is the entire Russian economy indeed in the hands of a relatively few obscenely rich mates of Putin?

The word 'oligarchs' was the clue

[JamesWales]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Here's my prediction:

Russia is basically an abusive ex husband abusing his ex for flirting with other men.

I think Russia will annex the eastern part of Ukraine where there is probably some support within Ukraine itself, without threatening the rest of Ukraine, which would provoke probably far more intense opposition.

NATO and the west can then be furious about it, but if Russia stops in eastern Ukraine they will claim some victory in stopping Putin, whilst Putin claims victory in invading Ukraine.

All the while, Europe, and especially Germany, gets it’s Russian gas, which given they have supplied Ukraine with no support would suggest it is their greatest concern (Ukraine has always been a pawn between two greater powers, much like Poland, Belarus etc)

So eastern Ukraine becomes a part of Russia, like the Crimea did a few years ago. Ukraine becomes smaller, more ethnically homogenous, more fiercely nationalist and simultaneously more westward looking. Russia buys a few years whilst it works out what it’s raison d’etre in world affairs is.

I hope I’m wrong and nothing happens.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Here's my prediction:

Russia is basically an abusive ex husband abusing his ex for flirting with other men.

I think Russia will annex the eastern part of Ukraine where there is probably some support within Ukraine itself, without threatening the rest of Ukraine, which would provoke probably far more intense opposition.

NATO and the west can then be furious about it, but if Russia stops in eastern Ukraine they will claim some victory in stopping Putin, whilst Putin claims victory in invading Ukraine.

All the while, Europe, and especially Germany, gets it’s Russian gas, which given they have supplied Ukraine with no support would suggest it is their greatest concern (Ukraine has always been a pawn between two greater powers, much like Poland, Belarus etc)

So eastern Ukraine becomes a part of Russia, like the Crimea did a few years ago. Ukraine becomes smaller, more ethnically homogenous, more fiercely nationalist and simultaneously more westward looking. Russia buys a few years whilst it works out what it’s raison d’etre in world affairs is.

I hope I’m wrong and nothing happens.

I have always thought (and mentioned it on here already) that the likelihood is that if does invade then Russia they will probably occupy and take control of only part of The Ukraine. A line drawn from the northern end of Transnistria (itself a breakaway/rogue entity of Moldova and under Russian influence) to Kharkov in the east defines an ethno-political-linguistic divide - and the region below that line is the more likely target for Russia, particularly the region east of the Dnieper. Surely they won't risk occupying the area north of that line, which would end up with endless hostility and guerilla action from the pro-west Ukranian-speaking population there.

[lardy]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Sergei doesn't want his mistress to lose her 4.4 million pound flat in Kensington. https://t.co/3feoXHRtUq

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) February 14, 2022

[JamesWales]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

I have always thought (and mentioned it on here already) that the likelihood is that if does invade then Russia they will probably occupy and take control of only part of The Ukraine. A line drawn from the northern end of Transnistria (itself a breakaway/rogue entity of Moldova and under Russian influence) to Kharkov in the east defines an ethno-political-linguistic divide - and the region below that line is the more likely target for Russia, particularly the region east of the Dnieper. Surely they won't risk occupying the area north of that line, which would end up with endless hostility and guerilla action from the pro-west Ukranian-speaking population there.

Yes, I think that is more likely, and whilst there is zero justification for it from our perspective, there is an argument Russia is 'protecting' ethnic and linguistic Russians, which do number in the millions in eastern Ukraine. It would also strengthen Russia in terms of land and population (not that they really need that) and weaken Ukraine. Also, would the west have the fight in them for an all-out war with a nuclear power for a relatively small part of the Ukraine that does to some extent feel Russian anyway?

There's some similarities with the German occupation of Sudetenland in 1938, not that I think Russia now is remotely comparable to Germany in 1938.

[Monster munch]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Its certainly gathering motion now. Wednesday is "invasion day" apparently being mooted in the press, B52's landing from the USA at RAF Fairford, commercial aircraft and westerners pulling out of the Ukraine.
Just ridiculous. I don't think it will come to shots fired, I think Ukraine will abandon its NATO dream and the russians will pull back. But it is all a bit twitchy for sure.

[goats]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Its certainly gathering motion now. Wednesday is "invasion day" apparently being mooted in the press, B52's landing from the USA at RAF Fairford, commercial aircraft and westerners pulling out of the Ukraine.
Just ridiculous. I don't think it will come to shots fired, I think Ukraine will abandon its NATO dream and the russians will pull back. But it is all a bit twitchy for sure.

Just what the world needs as we hopefully come out of a pandemic…..putin

[Wash DC Blue]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Interesting that Donetsk, one of the Eastern Cities and I think Pro Russian was established by a Welsh Business Man opening Steelworks and Coal Mines.

[Rjk]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Interesting that Donetsk, one of the Eastern Cities and I think Pro Russian was established by a Welsh Business Man opening Steelworks and Coal Mines.

and one of the other main cities in the Russian controlled area is Lugansk, which is twinned with Cardiff

[Wash DC Blue]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

and one of the other main cities in the Russian controlled area is Lugansk, which is twinned with Cardiff

Here's hoping that sense prevails.
I do agree with a post above and think that it will be a land grab in the east and hopefully that satiates the blood lust and ego.

[goats]

Re: Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

Here's hoping that sense prevails.
I do agree with a post above and think that it will be a land grab in the east and hopefully that satiates the blood lust and ego.

Like Russia needs just a bit more land….madness