Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

Italy for one don't count care home deaths.

Care homes are also 84% privately owned yet you want direct government intervention? Most sensible people would castigate care home owners and managers for not ensuring PPE available...

Why don’t they count care home deaths? With the oldest population in Europe and only second to Japan in the world it makes you wonder how bad it really is over there? If you took the care home deaths off our recorded ones now they would be far lower.
Almost half of the deaths in Cardiff County are now care homes related for ie.....

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

Has anyone on here actually lost their job? Just wondering as we hear about this in the news but I don’t actually know anyone who has? I know one who ran his own holistic massage business but he will get going again and has found other work already in the social care field. A few mates who play in pubs and who do festivals have lost work but I’m sure that will return at some point.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Google : coronavirus interactive map, and you should get some links to it, also BBC News has link to it

Thanks for that, seems that while this postcode could hardly be called a hotbed, it is the worst one in this area - people are wrong when they say the virus hasn't found its way up here.

Was told there have been at least two deaths in the local care home when walking the dog earlier.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

I wouldn't even call it a second wave if cases rise. The first, and current, wave has not died away.

Okay, let's not say second wave then, but if we go into a sustained period of six thousand plus new cases a day, then it would almost certainly indicate an increase in the R and, consequently an eventual rise in the death rate. This is something that I am not aware of happening in comparable countries (i.e. ones without very small populations) so far, there's always been a gradual decline after the rates plateaued elsewhere, if it shouldn't be called a second wave, it would be a second something.

As I mentioned, there has to be a good chance that yesterday's high figure on a low testing day, by recent standards, is a one off or a short term increase caused by returns gradually coming in from those 40,000 test packs that were sent out on 30 April, but I bet there will be a lot of official interest in today's figure in the hope that we are not seeing the beginning of something unexpected.

[Rjk]

Re: Coronavirus update

20200507_084131.jpg20200507_084218.jpg

Comparison between countries and different parts of the UK for excess deaths (i.e. all causes)
At the time of this data there were 22 k reported covid 19 deaths in the UK

[surge]

Re: Coronavirus update

Question yesterday asking why UK government is not making more clear what policies apply to England and where they are at a UK level: https://twitter.com/WillHayCardiff/s...31303497981953

Question completely dodged but, considering we had a thread on here about Boris Johnson announcing plans to re-open schools and only mention of England was separate point about CoE churches, it may be critical to things going forward.

On Twitter the response is from Scottish people echoing the statement and then other Scottish people, missing the point, wanting to stay part of the Union. It's important to recognise that we have devolution and whether you want more, less or same amount it's important that, at times of health crisis, information needs to be provided clearly so people know where they stand.

[tell it like it is]

Re: Coronavirus update

Ok it is the Lancet which has credibility issues, but we're all going to die from it. *

What's interesting is it seems a very nihilistic view. Whatever people do to prevent spread is ultimately pointless.

* Possibly.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext

[Rjk]

Re: Coronavirus update

Ok it is the Lancet which has credibility issues, but we're all going to die from it. *

What's interesting is it seems a very nihilistic view. Whatever people do to prevent spread is ultimately pointless.

* Possibly.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...035-7/fulltext

That view doesn't seem to be being borne out in reality however. There are plenty of examples of places that have managed it better than the western european nations

[delmbox]

Re: Coronavirus update

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-boris-johnson

This bit stuck out from that article:


A UK government spokesperson said: “This is an unprecedented global pandemic and we have taken the right steps at the right time to combat it, guided by the best scientific advice.

“The government has been working day and night to battle coronavirus, delivering a strategy designed to protect our NHS and save lives. Herd immunity has never been a policy or goal.”

a) Still banging on about how right we've been at every juncture and
b) The barefaced lie about herd immunity, the brazen cheek of denying that that was the original plan - The PM stood in front of the cameras and said so more than once

[tell it like it is]

Re: Coronavirus update

That view doesn't seem to be being borne out in reality however. There are plenty of examples of places that have managed it better than the western european nations

From "information" available now.

Italy's excess death count, for example, only goes to end of March.

The key predictions is "I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.".

I'd tend to agree, whilst pointing out it's inevitable there will be variations for external factors, demographics etc.

I'd also say that nobody has focused on Africa, I suspect figures there in nations will make the effect on UK look like a broken toenail. Their final figures may well be horrendous.

The only time real comparisons can be made is in the long term, and only if all nations register cases / deaths identically. I'm highly sceptical of figures like South Korea. If something looks too good to be true, it generally isn't.

[tell it like it is]

Re: Coronavirus update

This bit stuck out from that article:


A UK government spokesperson said: “This is an unprecedented global pandemic and we have taken the right steps at the right time to combat it, guided by the best scientific advice.

“The government has been working day and night to battle coronavirus, delivering a strategy designed to protect our NHS and save lives. Herd immunity has never been a policy or goal.”

a) Still banging on about how right we've been at every juncture and
b) The barefaced lie about herd immunity, the brazen cheek of denying that that was the original plan - The PM stood in front of the cameras and said so more than once

Can you provide the footage of Johnson standing in front of cameras and saying so more than once?

I know there's the editted clip from This Morning, where he explained the concept of herd immunity in this instance, the clip conveniently shutting off before he then said "but I don't agree with that".

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

Okay, let's not say second wave then, but if we go into a sustained period of six thousand plus new cases a day, then it would almost certainly indicate an increase in the R and, consequently an eventual rise in the death rate. This is something that I am not aware of happening in comparable countries (i.e. ones without very small populations) so far, there's always been a gradual decline after the rates plateaued elsewhere, if it shouldn't be called a second wave, it would be a second something.

As I mentioned, there has to be a good chance that yesterday's high figure on a low testing day, by recent standards, is a one off or a short term increase caused by returns gradually coming in from those 40,000 test packs that were sent out on 30 April, but I bet there will be a lot of official interest in today's figure in the hope that we are not seeing the beginning of something unexpected.

If anything, I would label it a delayed peak. It would make a mockery of Johnson triumphantly saying "we are passed the peak" - a comment I thought would be better left following a week of a steady decline rather than a week of a flat line.

I suspect we will see a lifting of restrictions - I actually had an e-mail from a storage company yesterday saying restrictions WERE lifted - but that still seems to be premature when we have jsut recorded the third highest case rate in the short history of this. I am starting to suspect that the data that the modellers are relying on are the death figures (clouded by the sudden introduction of care home deaths), and hospital occupancy rates.

If I was someone on the "high risk" register, I'd be more concerned with active number of cases in my local area, if not nationally. I am not likely to say to my own parents "yep, you can go out now" just because the death rate is falling, but the number of people testing positive is increasing. If one of my parents gets it, I fear the worst.

[Rjk]

Re: Coronavirus update

From "information" available now.

Italy's excess death count, for example, only goes to end of March.

The key predictions is "I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.".

I'd tend to agree, whilst pointing out it's inevitable there will be variations for external factors, demographics etc.

I'd also say that nobody has focused on Africa, I suspect figures there in nations will make the effect on UK look like a broken toenail. Their final figures may well be horrendous.

The only time real comparisons can be made is in the long term, and only if all nations register cases / deaths identically. I'm highly sceptical of figures like South Korea. If something looks too good to be true, it generally isn't.

Places like Vietnam and Hong Kong who acted quickly and strongly have shown that it can have a very different outcome than we have seen in Europe. and if it comes back there I would expect that they would act in the same way

[delmbox]

Re: Coronavirus update

Can you provide the footage of Johnson standing in front of cameras and saying so more than once?

.

No I'm not going to go trawling through the internet just before going to work, to try and prove a point to tell it like it is off the CCMB, who's opinion I care nothing about. You can pretend that herd immunity was not initially mooted 7 weeks ago to huge international criticism if you want, or don't, whatever. But to say it was never spoken about as a goal is absolute bullshit

[Heisenberg]

Re: Coronavirus update

Can you provide the footage of Johnson standing in front of cameras and saying so more than once?

I know there's the editted clip from This Morning, where he explained the concept of herd immunity in this instance, the clip conveniently shutting off before he then said "but I don't agree with that".

I don't remember Boris saying it, but Patrick Vallance said it on several occasions.

Let me know if you want me to share links... I've got some spare time for the next hour, unlike Delmbox