Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Re: Coronavirus update

Boris Johnson saying how our response to Covid has been a success.

Population of the UK as a percentage of worldwide: roughly 0.85%.
Covid deaths in the UK as a percentage of worldwide: roughly 7.7%.

[life on mars]

Re: Coronavirus update

and this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53443724

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has called for an urgent review into how coronavirus deaths have been recorded in England.

It follows confirmation from Public Health England that reported deaths may have included people who tested positive months before they died.

The other UK nations only include those who die within 28 days of a positive test.

There have been 40,528 deaths linked to the virus in England.

Prof Carl Heneghan from University of Oxford, who spotted the issue with the data, told the BBC there was "huge variation" in the numbers of daily deaths reported in England by PHE.

While NHS England currently reports 30-35 deaths per day, Public Health England (PHE) data often shows double that or more, he said.

The reason is that anyone who has tested positive for coronavirus but then died at a later date of another cause would still be included in PHE's Covid-19 death figures.

"By this PHE definition, no one with Covid in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness," Prof Heneghan says.

"We need correct and accurate statistics so we can really understand the trend - otherwise it's very difficult to know what's going on," he added.

Figures release from PHE today show that just under 10% of coronavirus deaths in England happened more than 28 days after a positive test.

In almost half of those cases, Covid-19 was recorded as the main cause of death.


Dr Susan Hopkins, from Public Health England, said there was no agreed method of counting deaths from Covid-19.

"In England, we count all those that have died who had a positive Covid-19 test at any point, to ensure our data is as complete as possible.

"We must remember that this is a new and emerging infection and there is increasing evidence of long-term health problems for some of those affected."

"Now is the right time to review how deaths are calculated," Dr Hopkins said.

Prof David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge, has called for the same systems for collecting data on deaths to be used across the UK.

There are also concerns over the impact on a potential second wave.

"As we go into the winter, it will get incredibly confusing and concerning if you have an increase in deaths while you are still counting and combining deaths from within the first phase," Prof Heneghan said.

"This means we might be unable to detect early trends in rising deaths if we put them down to historical deaths due to the inadequacies of the current system."

[Baloo]

Re: Coronavirus update

and this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53443724

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has called for an urgent review into how coronavirus deaths have been recorded in England.

It follows confirmation from Public Health England that reported deaths may have included people who tested positive months before they died.

The other UK nations only include those who die within 28 days of a positive test.

There have been 40,528 deaths linked to the virus in England.

Prof Carl Heneghan from University of Oxford, who spotted the issue with the data, told the BBC there was "huge variation" in the numbers of daily deaths reported in England by PHE.

While NHS England currently reports 30-35 deaths per day, Public Health England (PHE) data often shows double that or more, he said.

The reason is that anyone who has tested positive for coronavirus but then died at a later date of another cause would still be included in PHE's Covid-19 death figures.

"By this PHE definition, no one with Covid in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness," Prof Heneghan says.

"We need correct and accurate statistics so we can really understand the trend - otherwise it's very difficult to know what's going on," he added.

Figures release from PHE today show that just under 10% of coronavirus deaths in England happened more than 28 days after a positive test.

In almost half of those cases, Covid-19 was recorded as the main cause of death.


Dr Susan Hopkins, from Public Health England, said there was no agreed method of counting deaths from Covid-19.

"In England, we count all those that have died who had a positive Covid-19 test at any point, to ensure our data is as complete as possible.

"We must remember that this is a new and emerging infection and there is increasing evidence of long-term health problems for some of those affected."

"Now is the right time to review how deaths are calculated," Dr Hopkins said.

Prof David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge, has called for the same systems for collecting data on deaths to be used across the UK.

There are also concerns over the impact on a potential second wave.

"As we go into the winter, it will get incredibly confusing and concerning if you have an increase in deaths while you are still counting and combining deaths from within the first phase," Prof Heneghan said.

"This means we might be unable to detect early trends in rising deaths if we put them down to historical deaths due to the inadequacies of the current system."

So nearly 10% of deaths over 28 days after positive Covid test and just under half of those Covid recorded as primary cause of death. So potentially nearly 5% over reporting in England compared to rest of UK - is that right?

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

New cases figures were up to over 800 on Saturday and over 700 yesterday - seems to me more of the same today would represent a definite upward trend.

[Jordi Culé]

Re: Coronavirus update

New cases figures were up to over 800 on Saturday and over 700 yesterday - seems to me more of the same today would represent a definite upward trend.

Better track, trace and testing perhaps?

Don’t laugh I’m being serious.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Encouraging news on the vaccine front;-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53469839

[life on mars]

Re: Coronavirus update

Encouraging news on the vaccine front;-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53469839

Good to hear , fingers crossed , got to get back to footy and pubs and music gigs , its interesting they say we may not have enough cases to test in the UK .

It was one thing the government chucked money at very early on "" £65.5 million of new funding for the vaccine being developed at the University of Oxford as coronavirus ...""

[ToTaL ITK]

Re: Coronavirus update

Sweden; where i live is having a hard time to find covid 19 study cases. I'm not sure how hard they are trying but in my county there have been about 3600 cases and about 260 deaths...same population as Birmingham.
I still feel they threw people under the bus butatm its looking positive case wise.

[jon1959]

Re: Coronavirus update

Good to hear , fingers crossed , got to get back to footy and pubs and music gigs , its interesting they say we may not have enough cases to test in the UK .

It was one thing the government chucked money at very early on "" £65.5 million of new funding for the vaccine being developed at the University of Oxford as coronavirus ...""

We should be random testing, not just testing people who report they have symptoms. We have no idea who is asymptomatic with the virus or is virus free. We have a limited idea of who has the virus with symptoms. And a week later the picture will have changed. The testing should be about mapping the presence of the virus in the whole population, not just a yes/no on the relatively few people who self refer.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/20/englands-chief-nurse-dropped-from-covid-19-briefing-after-refusing-to-back-cummings-ruth-may

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

We should be random testing, not just testing people who report they have symptoms. We have no idea who is asymptomatic with the virus or is virus free. We have a limited idea of who has the virus with symptoms. And a week later the picture will have changed. The testing should be about mapping the presence of the virus in the whole population, not just a yes/no on the relatively few people who self refer.

Completely agree although, to be fair, care workers and NHS staff are now getting tested routinely - so that will provide some valuable data about infection rates.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

We should be random testing, not just testing people who report they have symptoms. We have no idea who is asymptomatic with the virus or is virus free. We have a limited idea of who has the virus with symptoms. And a week later the picture will have changed. The testing should be about mapping the presence of the virus in the whole population, not just a yes/no on the relatively few people who self refer.

But anyone can go and get a test. you can walk up register and get tested. how more random can you get?

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

But anyone can go and get a test. you can walk up register and get tested. how more random can you get?

Walk up to where?

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

Walk up to where?

A test centre, but drive up would be more correct.

[CCFCC3PO]

Re: Coronavirus update

A test centre, but drive up would be more correct.

Really?

https://gov.wales/apply-coronavirus-test - seems to contradict you.